The Times They are AI-Changing

I have witnessed three world-changing technologies in my lifetime: the rise of the internet, the power of smartphones, and technology reaching into every aspect of daily life. These sweeping transformations have made life more convenient, more efficient, and more expensive.

The internet has turned instant communication and global connectivity into something we now take for granted. The smartphone replaced physical cameras, maps, telephones, music players, address books, flashlights, and alarm clocks in just a decade. At the end of this blog, there is a longer list of items that have been replaced, courtesy of ChatGPT.

Trillion-dollar companies grew from small startups. Billion-dollar companies went out of business. Some adapted, and for others the future is still uncertain.

Each of these technologies built upon the previous layer:

Layer 1: Internet connectivity

Layer 2: A smartphone in every pocket

Layer 3: Technologies only possible because of layers 1 and 2, such as Uber and DoorDash

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Layer 4 is here, and we are only in the beginning stages of its impact on the economy. Broadly, it is called AI or artificial intelligence, but it is more than simply smarter computers. These are computers that can interact with you on a near-human level, take feedback, understand tone, and make meaningful changes.

Imagine asking Siri to book a flight and the ticket simply appears in your email.

Imagine asking ChatGPT to generate a living trust or a will.

Imagine asking Perplexity to analyze the best cars to buy in the next year.

All of these tasks, which once required human brainpower, personal energy, and time, are now being refined and delivered through scalable AI engines, powered by technology companies.

Here are the 40 jobs most at risk. Although I earned a history degree from the University of Colorado, I am glad that it is not my source of income.

source: newsweek.com/top-40-jobs-most-likely-impacted-ai-2103956

Although many people will lose their jobs as this technology advances, many new roles will be created. Jobs like prompt engineer, AI software engineer, and machine learning engineer are already emerging.

Interestingly, blue-collar work should remain relatively stable through this period. It is the white-collar workforce that faces the most disruption.

That is until we reach Layer 5: physical application.

Layer 5 has already begun. It is technology entering the physical world. Think drones, most visibly in drone warfare in Ukraine. Think self-driving cars from Waymo or Tesla, and self-driving trucks from Aurora Technologies or Tesla. Surgical robots from Intuitive Surgical and drone taxis from Joby or Archer Aviation are already in development.

My takeaway is this: if you have missed these big themes in the past because you were value investing in Xerox at a 4 P/E, do not miss this trend. It is massive, and it has only just begun.

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These themes have been playing out in the market for the last few years, so most of these companies are far from cheap. Hiring a qualified investment advisor to help sort through the noise may be a great investment. If you’re interested, click on the ‘work with Zak’ tab.

ChatGPT’s list of things replaced by a smart phone:

📸 Photography & Video

• Digital cameras

• Camcorders

• Photo albums (with cloud storage and sharing)

🧭 Navigation & Travel

• Paper maps / atlases

• GPS units

• Compasses

• Travel guides and phrasebooks

• Physical boarding passes / tickets

📞 Communication

• Landline phones

• Payphones

• Answering machines

• Fax machines

• Walkie-talkies (for casual use)

🎶 Entertainment & Media

• iPods / MP3 players

• CD players / cassette players

• Radios

• Portable DVD players

• Handheld gaming consoles (partially)

• Television (streaming on mobile)

• Newspapers and magazines (via apps or web)

📖 Reading & Writing

• Notebooks / journals

• Address books

• Dictionaries / thesauruses

• Cookbooks

• Printed calendars and planners

• Physical books (for casual readers via eBooks)

🔧 Utility Tools

• Flashlight

• Alarm clock

• Stopwatch / timer

• Calculator

• Level tool / ruler (via apps)

• Voice recorder

• Scanners (for documents or QR codes)

💼 Finance & Work

• Checkbooks (digital banking)

• Physical wallets (via Apple Pay)

• Business cards (digital alternatives)

• Physical boarding passes / loyalty cards

• Office supplies like fax machines, pens, etc. (to some extent)

💬 Social & Internet

• Desktop computers (for casual browsing)

• Printed photographs / photo frames

• Bulletin boards / classifieds

• Dating services / matchmakers

• Local event flyers

🛒 Shopping & Services

• Coupons / loyalty cards

• Catalogs

• Cash registers (for some small businesses via Square, etc.)

• Travel agents

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions.